March 25, 2009

More Polling Data

Following the recent publication of the All-Wales Conventions polling data, I looked up the comparable polls on this subject for the last few years, which showed:

May 07 Yes 47% No 44% Yes Margin +3% (BBC)
Feb 08 Yes 49% No 42% Yes Margin +7% (BBC)
Dec 09 Yes 48% No 35% Yes Margin +13% (AWC)
Feb 09 Yes 52% No 39% Yes Margin +13% (BBC)

(The dates are when the polling was conducted, not when the poll published)

I understand that Labour want a +20% margin before they risk a poll, but things are certainly headed that way, and we could be on target for a 2010 referendum after all.

March 24, 2009

More Polling News

The All-Wales Convention have now published their poll findings, and despite the spin put on the findings by the Western Mail, it again shows that a Yes vote would be won.

The figures show Yes 48%, No 35%, Undecided 9% - So not yet a resounding Yes, but still largely in favour. So let us vote!!

The poll also confirms that the overwhelming proportion of voters want the Assembly in one form or another, with only 11% supporting abolition. David Davies and Don Touhig please note.

March 12, 2009

Abertawe yn dweud “Ie” i bwerau deddfu.

Mewn cyfarfod cyhoeddus poblogaidd a gynhaliwyd gan Gonfensiwn Cymru Gyfan yn Theatr y Grand, Abertawe, neithiwr, cafodd ymrwymiad ail ddinas Cymru i Ddatganoli ei gadarnhau o’r newydd. Ond cododd cwestiynau difrifol hefyd am natur y pwerau a gaiff eu cynnig. O’r ddwy awr ddwys o drafodaeth, daeth anniddigrwydd i’r amlwg ynghylch y pecyn sy’n cael ei gynnig – mae llawer o bobl yn teimlo nad yw’n ddigonol.

Yn wir, y consensws cyffredinol ymhlith aelodau’r gynulleidfa yw y dylem gael pwerau tebyg i’r Alban. Roedd yr archwaeth am Ddatganoli cryfach yn amlwg a diamwys; canlyniad pleidlais a gafwyd ar ddiwedd y sesiwn, gyda thros 100 yn bresennol, oedd 80% o blaid mwy o bwerau, ac 20% o blaid glynu wrth y drefn bresennol.

Ac nid teimlad a geir ymysg y cyhoedd yn gyffredinol yn unig yw hyn. Yr un yw’r farn ar draws pleidiau gwleidyddol a sefydliadau’r gymdeithas sifil. Mewn cyfarfod cyhoeddus a gynhaliwyd gan Cymru Gyntaf yr wythnos ddiwethaf, roedd y siaradwyr yn gytun mai’r hyn sydd ei angen arnom yw gweithredu argymhellion Comisiwn Richard – argymhellion a daflwyd i’r neilltu er mwyn cuddio’r craciau yn y Blaid Lafur.

Wrth i gefnogaeth ehangach dros bwerau deddfu barhau i dyfu, mae Llafur mewn perygl o fod wedi’i hynysu ac o golli cysylltiad â’r cyhoedd yng Nghymru ar y mater hwn...

Swansea says “Yes” to lawmaking powers.

A well attended public meeting held in Swansea’s Grand Theatre by the All Wales Convention last night reaffirmed the commitment of Wales’ second city to Devolution. But it also raised serious questions about the nature of the powers on offer. Two hours of serious, in depth debate and discussion revealed a strong thread of discontent with the package on offer - many people feel that it just isn’t enough.

If anything, the general consensus amongst members of the audience was that we should have Scottish style powers. The general appetite for stronger Devolution was clear and unambiguous: a vote held at the end of the session attended by over 100 people showed 80% in favour of more powers, and 20% for the status quo.

And this isn’t just a sentiment that’s widely held amongst the general public either. It’s also held across political parties and civil society organisations. A strong consensus amongst speakers at a public meeting held by Wales First last week was that what we need are implementation of the Richard Commission’s recommendations – recommendations kicked into touch to paper over the cracks in the Labour Party.

As wider support for law-making powers continues to acquire momentum, Labour runs the risk of looking increasing isolated and out of touch with the Welsh public on this issue...

March 11, 2009

Wales Can - Not Sure About Plaid

For years, Plaid have sat on the fence about independence, but have finally had the courage to open the debate with their Wales Can website.

While I am pleased that Plaid have stopped hiding behind weasel words and vague aspirations, and put their heads firmly above the parapet, I am staggered about the timing of this initiative, which can only be described as naiive!

At a time when we are fighting just to achieve a referendum on law-making powers (let alone win it), Plaid have shown True Wales and their ragbag collection of rabid conservative and labour dinosaur supporters an open goal.

The anti-devolutionists will use Plaid's campaign to reinforce their message that a law-making Parliament is nothing more than a step towards independence, and will be scouring the site for further evidence to misquote and add to their collection of untruths and lies.

Why could Plaid not have continued this debate behind closed doors for a little longer, with a simple statement that they were committed towards a Parliament and would only consider a discussion about independence after the goal of a parliament had been achieved.

Why open the debate now??

March 2, 2009

Evening Post Editor tells Sir Emyr to Take a Running Jump!

A friend of mine has e-mailed me the following story. A few days ago he attended a meeting of the All-Wales Convention in Llanelli. Sir Emyr was there as per usual, and informed the audience present that in his attempts to get local publicity for the event, he had fallen foul of Evening Post supremo Spencer Feeney, a man not renowned for his love of Wales or devolution.

It's not clear whether the following was relayed to Sir Emyr over the phone or face to face, but apparently Mr. Feeney's words were:

"Don't expect any help from me to publicise your work - If it doesn't effect Mrs Jones in Bonymaen - You can forget it cos it's not going in the paper."

So much for impartial, unbiased journalism then! Maybe it explains why publicity for a public "Yes" meeting on Wednesday, featuring two prominent local AMs, has yet to hit the pages of this particular paper...

But what episodes like this really highlight is the need and relevance of the Internet, and social networking groups like Facebook. Anti-devolution groups like True Wales seem to get regular media coverage on Television, on the web and in print media, but any grassroots "Yes" campaign will have to surmount formidable obstacles to get it's message out. Nevertheless, it costs nothing to set up a blog like this, and relay this information to nearly 2000 people at the touch of a button.

Anti-Welsh media Moguls like Spencer Feeney can raise their media blockades, but we have the technology to by-pass them.

It also takes next to no time to relay your feelings on this matter to the good Editor either, if you feel so inclined. Here's his e-mail address:


Polls, commissions, surveys and even groups like Wales First show consistent public support across Wales for more law-making powers, while Swansea, a city served by the Evening Post voted "Yes" to Devolution last time around.

So just how in tune with popular sentiment is the Evening Post, and it's erstwhile Editor...?

March 1, 2009

Our Rhodri

A few days ago I suggested that any opinion poll on further devolution would in reality only reflect the public's views on our politicians.

The subsequent BBC poll which reported strong (but not overwhelming) support for a referendum, also reported a strong personal level of support for Rhodri Morgan. and this must have influenced the thoughts of some of those responding.

So this begs the question - what will happen when Rhodri steps down as FM?? Will the electorate be as supportive of further powers if Carwyn Jones, Andrew Davies or Huw Lewis are "leading" them. I doubt it.

So maybe a solution would be to ask Rhodri if he can chair the YES campaign as his final political act. Not only would he provide his inimitable style of leadership and charisma, he would also be free from any accusation on the part of the "True" Wales group that he was only interested in personal gain.