First the good news: The most recent poll shows yet again an increasing level of support for a Yes vote.
But the recent UK general election showed how events in the London media can dominate Welsh voting intentions, and there is a large dark cloud on the horizon - The UK Government plan to hold a referendum on STV and are proposing to hold it on May 6th - the same date as the Assembly elections (and Scottish Parliament and English Councils). They want to do this so as to maximise turnout, and although they have not said it yet you can rest assured that they will also want to hold the Law-Making referndum on the same day.
Can you imagine the scene on the doorstep where a loyal group of Labour activists ask you to vote Labour, No to ATV, Yes to Legislative Power - shortly followed by a second group saying Yes to ATV and No to Legislation - followed by....you get the idea.
And how do you persuade voters that ATV is better than FPTP, when they are actually voting on the same day with AMS??
One thing is clear - 'Yes to ATV' is a much simpler message to sell than the 'Yes to give the Assembly legislative powers in accordance with Schedule 4 of the GOWA 2006 without the need to refer to Westminster'. We need to simplify the message, maybe
'Yes for Wales'