Why not delay the referendum for now and have a substantial referendum in 2012?

Last week I was invited to be part of a focus group commissioned by the Electoral Commission to garner opinions about the wording of the prospective Assembly Powers Referendum.

There were about 20 people in the group from different backgrounds. Some of us were keen supporters of the Assembly others wanted the institution abolished, but all, apart from myself, were under the illusion that the referendum was about giving the Assembly the same powers that the Scottish Parliament has now. When it was explained that they were mistaken, that the referendum was just about the way that the Assembly gained powers and that the full powers could be gained, over time, even if the referendum produced a 100% No vote, all thought that the referendum was a complete waste of time and money.

The members of the group were all annoyed that they had come to the meeting with strong views on opposing or supporting enhanced devolution only to find that the discussion was about administrative tinkering rather than anything of substance.

Because of the current government's desire to equalize the size of Westminster constituencies the Government of Wales Act 2006, will have to be amended, because the said act insists that Westminster and Bay constituencies must be the same size. In amending the bill why not add an amendment to give the Assembly Schedule 7 powers without the need for a referendum, and have a referendum in a year or two's time on substantive Full Scottish Type Powers for the Assembly, which most people, from both sides of the argument, think that the part 4 referendum is about anyway?

A Super Thursday?

There has been mixed messages this week about the referendum.

First the good news: The most recent poll shows yet again an increasing level of support for a Yes vote.

But the recent UK general election showed how events in the London media can dominate Welsh voting intentions, and there is a large dark cloud on the horizon - The UK Government plan to hold a referendum on STV and are proposing to hold it on May 6th - the same date as the Assembly elections (and Scottish Parliament and English Councils). They want to do this so as to maximise turnout, and although they have not said it yet you can rest assured that they will also want to hold the Law-Making referndum on the same day.

Can you imagine the scene on the doorstep where a loyal group of Labour activists ask you to vote Labour, No to ATV, Yes to Legislative Power - shortly followed by a second group saying Yes to ATV and No to Legislation - followed by....you get the idea.

And how do you persuade voters that ATV is better than FPTP, when they are actually voting on the same day with AMS??

One thing is clear - 'Yes to ATV' is a much simpler message to sell than the 'Yes to give the Assembly legislative powers in accordance with Schedule 4 of the GOWA 2006 without the need to refer to Westminster'. We need to simplify the message, maybe

'Yes for Wales'

The Referendum: Where does YOUR Parliamentary Candidate Stand?

A member of Wales First, Hedd Gwynfor, has conducted a survey of parliamentary candidates' intentions in relation to the upcoming referendum on further law-making powers for the Welsh Assembly. The results - just in - are shown below.

Rather than add comment of my own, I'll let the results speak for themselves. The Parliamentary seats are listed alphabetically, with the name of the candidates and political parties underneath.

Two simple questions were asked. The answers are set out next to the candidate's name. Scroll down the list to see where YOUR candidate stands:

Y CWESTIYNAU/THE QUESTIONS:

1, A fyddwch chi yn pleidleisio o blaid neu yn erbyn trosglwyddo'r pwerau deddfu yn yr 20 maes datganoledig o San Steffan i Gynulliad Cenedlaethol Cymru yn y refferendwm arfaethedig sydd i'w gynnal yng Nghymru o fewn y flwyddyn nesaf?

2, A fyddwch chi'n ymgyrchu o blaid neu yn erbyn trosglwyddo'r pwerau deddfu yn yr 20 maes datganoledig o San Steffan i Gynulliad Cenedlaethol Cymru yn y refferendwm arfaethedig?

1, Will you VOTE for or against the transfer of legislative powers in the 20 devolved areas from Westminster to the National Assembly in the upcoming referendum to be held in Wales within the next year?

2, Will you be CAMPAIGNING for or against the transfer of legislative powers in the 20 devolved fields from Westminster to the National Assembly in the upcoming referendum?

YR ETHOLAETHAU/THE CONSTITUENCIES:

Aberavon	Keith Davies (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Paul Nicholls Jones (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Caroline Jones (Conservatives) – No Answer Hywel Francis (Labour) – No Answer Joe Callan (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Andrew Tutton (Independent) – No Answer
Aberconwy	Mike Priestley (Lib Dems) – No Answer Philip Rees Edwards (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Guto Bebb (Conservatives) – No Answer Ronald Hughes (Labour) – No Answer Mike Wieteska (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Louise Wynne Jones (Christian) – No Answer
Alyn and Deeside	Paul Brighton (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Maurice Jones (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Will Gallagher (Conservatives) – No Answer Mark Tami (Labour) – No Answer James Howson (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Arfon	Sarah Green (Lib Dems) – No Answer Hywel Williams (Plaid) – No Answer Robin Millar (Conservatives) – No Answer Alun Pugh (Labour) – 1. For / 2. For Elwyn Williams (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Blaenau Gwent	Matt Smith (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Rhodri Davies (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Liz Stevenson (Conservatives) – No Answer Nick Smith (Labour) – No Answer Dr Mike Kocan (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Dai Davies (People's Voice) – No Answer Alyson O'Connell (Socialist) – No Answer
Brecon & Radnorshire	Roger Williams (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Janet Davies (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Suzy Davies (Conservatives) – 1. For / 2. For Chris Lloyd (Labour) – No Answer Dorienne Robinson (Green) – No Answer Clive Easton (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Jeff Green (Christian) – No Answer
Bridgend	Wayne Morgan (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Nick Thomas (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Helen Baker (Conservatives) – No Answer Madeleine Moon (Labour) – No Answer Dave Fulton (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Caerphilly	Kay David (Lib Dems) – No Answer Lindsay Whittle (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Maria Caulfield (Conservatives) - 1. For / 2. Not Campaigning Wayne David (Labour) – No Answer Tony Jenkins (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Cardiff Central	Jenny Willott (Lib Dems) – No Answer Chris Williams (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Karen Robson (Conservatives) - 1. For / 2. Undecided Jenny Rathbone (Labour) – 1. For / 2. For Sam Coates (Green) – 1. For / 2. For Susan Davies (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Ross Saunders (Socialist) – 1. For / 2. For Alun Mathias (Independent) – No Answer
Cardiff South and Penarth	Dominic Hannigan (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Farida Aslam (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Simon Hoare (Conservatives) – No Answer Alun Michael (Labour) – No Answer Matt Townsend (Green) – 1. For / 2. For Simon Zeigler (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Clive Bate (Christian) – No Answer George Burke (Independent) – No Answer Rob Griffiths (Communists) – 1. For / 2. For
Cardiff North	John Dixon (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Llew Rhys (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Jonathan Evans (Conservatives) – No Answer Julie Morgan (Labour) – 1. For / 2. For Chris von Ruhland (Green) – No Answer Lawrence Gwynn (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Derek Thomson (Christian) – No Answer
Cardiff West	Rachael Hitchinson (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For MohammedSarul Islam (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Angela Jones-Evans (Conservatives) – No Answer Kevin Brennan (Labour) – 1. For / 2. For Jake Griffiths (Green) – No Answer Mike Hennessey (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Bill Powell (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Jonathan Edwards (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Andrew Morgan (Conservatives) – No Answer Christine Gwyther (Labour) – 1. For / 2. For John Atkinson (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Carmarthen West & South Pembs	John Gossage (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For John Dixon (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Simon Hart (Conservatives) – No Answer Nick Ainger (Labour) – No Answer Ray Clarke (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Henry Langen (Independent) – No Answer
Ceredigion	Mark Williams (Lib Dems) – No Answer Penri James – 1. For / 2. For Luke Evetts (Conservatives) 1. For / 2. Not Campaigning Richard Boudier (Labour) – 1. For / 2. For Leila Kiersch (Green) – 1. For / 2. For Elwyn Willams (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Clwyd South	Bruce Roberts (Lib Dems) – No Answer Janet Ryder – 1. For / 2. For John Bell (Conservatives) – No Answer Susan Elan Jones (Labour) – No Answer Nick Powell (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Clwyd West	Michele Jones (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Llyr Huws Gruffydd (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For David Jones (Conservatives) – No Answer Donna Hutton (Labour) – 1. For / 2. For Warwick Nicholson (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against David Griffiths (Christian) – No Answer Joe Llywelyn Griffith Blakesley (Independent)
Cynon Valley	Lee Thacker (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Dafydd Trystan (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Juliette Ash (Conservatives) – No Answer Ann Clwyd (Labour) – No Answer Frank Hughes (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Delyn	Bill Brereton (Lib Dems) – No Answer Peter Ryder (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Antoinette Sandbach (Conservatives) – No Answer David Hanson (Labour) – No Answer Andrew Haigh (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Dwyfor Meirionydd	Steve Churchman (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Elfyn Llwyd (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Simon Baynes (Conservatives) – 1. For / 2. For Alwyn Humphreys (Labour) – 1. For / 2. For Francis Wykes (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Louise Hughes (Independent) – No Answer
Gower	Mike Day (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Darren Price (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Byron Davies (Conservatives) – No Answer Martin Caton (Labour) – No Answer Gordon Triggs (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Adrian Jones (Independent) – No Answer
Islwyn	Asghar Ali (Lib Dems) – No Answer Steffan Lewis (Plaid) – 1. For / 2.For Daniel Thomas (Conservatives) – No Answer Chris Evans (Labour) – No Answer Jason Crew (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Dave Rees (Independent) – No Answer, Probably Against, 'True Wales' Paul Taylor (Independent) – No Answer
Llanelli	Myrddin Edwards (Lib Dems) – No Answer Myfanwy Davies (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Christopher Salmon (Conservatives) – 1. For / 2. For Nia Griffith (Labour) – No Answer Andrew Marshall (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Amy Kitcher (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Glyndwr Cennydd Jones (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Maria Hill (Conservatives) – No Answer Dai Havard (Labour) – No Answer Adam Brown (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Alan Brian Cowdell (Socialist) – No Answer Clive Tovey (Independent) – No Answer
Monmouth	Martin Blakebrough (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Jonathan Clark (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For David Davies 1. Against / 2. Against Hamish Sandison (Labour) – No Answer Steve Milson (Green) – 1. For / 2. For Derek Rowe (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Montgomeryshire	Lembit Opik (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Heledd Fychan (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Glyn Davies (Conservatives) – 1. For / 2. For Nick Colbourne (Labour) – 1. For / 2. For David W Rowlands (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Bruce Lawson (Independent) – 1. For / 2. For
Neath	Frank Little (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Alun Llewelyn (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Emmeline Owens (Conservatives) – No Answer Peter Hain (Labour) – No Answer James Bevan (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Newport East	Ed Townsend (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Fiona Cross (Plaid) – No Answer Dawn Parry (Conservatives) – No Answer Jessica Morden (Labour) – No Answer David J Rowlands (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Newport West	Veronica Watkins (Lib Dems) – No Answer Jeff Rees (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Matthew Williams (Conservatives) – No Answer Paul Flynn (Labour) – 1. For / 2. For Pippa Bartolotti (Green) – 1. For / 2. For Hugh Moelwyn Hughes (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Ogmore	Jackie Radford (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Danny Clark (Plaid) – No Answer Emma Moore (Conservatives) 1. Undecided / 2. Not Campaigning Huw Irranca-Davies (Labour) – No Answer Carolyn Passey (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Pontypridd	Mike Powell (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Ioan Bellin (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Lee Gonzalez (Conservatives) – No Answer Owen Smith (Labour) – No Answer John Matthews (Green) – No Answer David Bevan (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Donald Watson (Christian) – No Answer Simon Parsons (Socialist) – No Answer
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Nick Tregoning (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Henry Jones-Davies (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Stephen Crabb (Conservatives) – No Answer Mari Rees (Labour) – No Answer Richard Lawson (UKIP) Undecided / Undecided
Rhondda	Paul Wasley (Lib Dems) – No Answer Geraint Davies (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Juliet Henderson (Conservatives) – No Answer Chris Bryant (Labour) – No Answer Taffy John (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Philip Howe (Independent)
Swansea East	Rob Speht (Lib Dems) – No Answer Dic Jones (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Christian Holliday (Conservatives) – No Answer Sian James (Labour) – No Answer Tony Young (Green) – 1. For / 2. For David Rogers (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Swansea West	Peter May (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Harri Roberts (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For René Kinzett (Conservatives) – No Answer Geraint Davies (Labour) – No Answer Keith Ross (Green) – 1. For / 2. For Tim Jenkins (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Alan Bateman (Independent) – No Answer Ian McCloy (Independent) – No Answer Rob Williams (Socialist) – No Answer
Torfaen	David Morgan (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Rhys ab Elis (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Jonathan Burns (Conservatives) – No Answer Paul Murphy (Labour) – No Answer Owen Clarke (Green) 1. For / 2. Not Campaigning Gareth Dunn (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Fred Wildgust (Independent) – No Answer Richard Turner-Thomas (Independent) – No Answer
Vale of Clwyd	Paul Penlington (Lib Dems) – No Answer Caryl Wyn Jones (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Matt Wright (Conservatives) – No Answer Chris Ruane (Labour) – 1. For / 2. For Tom Turner (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Mike Butler (Socialist) – No Answer
Vale of Glamorgan	Eluned Parrott (Lib Dems) – No Answer Ian James Johnson (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Alun Cairns (Conservatives) – No Answer Alana Davies (Labour) – 1. For / 2. For Rhodri Thomas (Green) – 1. For / 2. For Kevin Mahoney (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against John Harrold (Christian) 1. For / 2. Not Campaigning
Wrexham	Tom Rippeth (Lib Dems) – No Answer Owain Arfon Jones (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Gareth Hughes (Conservatives) – No Answer Ian Lucas (Labour) – No Answer John Humberstone (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against
Ynys Môn	Matt Wood (Lib Dems) – 1. For / 2. For Dylan Wyn Rees (Plaid) – 1. For / 2. For Anthony Ridge-Newman (Conservatives) – No Answer Albert Owen (Labour) – No Answer Elaine Gill (UKIP) – No Answer, Probably Against Peter Rogers (Independent) 1. Undecided / 2. Undecided

A Very Happy St Davids Day

There has already been plenty said about the latest poll, so I will simply leave you with these figures - the margin of those in favour of more powers over those opposed:

2008 +7%
2009 +13%
2010 +21%

So, Peter Hain, Paul Murphy, David Davies, Cheryl Gillan, Len Gibbs, Dave Rees...........Enjoy.

A Family Tale

There once was a very large and influential family, but over the years many of the family members drifted away and they found themselves scattered in all four corners of the world. However, despite going their separate ways, they still remained friendly (or most of them anyway) and even met up occasionally at family get togethers.

The family gradually reduced in size until there were just three children and Mother remaining.

One of the children, Andrew, had always been very troublesome and outspoken, and wanted a home of his own. So eventually Mother let him have his own house, but kept on sharing the chores and helping out with the bills, and he stayed close to Mother.

At the same time, Mother also let one of the other children, Norman, have his own house. Norman had a troubled history, and a few years earlier had been involved in a messy divorce with his partner, Pat, which left him with some unresolved issues.

The other child, David, also wanted a house of his own, although wasn't as outspoken as Andrew. Mother was not at all keen on this but she let David have a small flat, but with very little furniture, and which was clearly inadequate.

David felt cheated, and after 10 years Mother gave him some more furniture but she simply refused to give him a house like the other two children.

"Why" said David? "Its just not fair!"

" I am bigger than Norman, and am actually older than Andrew"

But Mother said "That is the point - I cant let you go because you were my first - if you go then I will be left with nothing!"

David replied "But I am not going anywhere - I will just be next door - I am not leaving the family!! But cant you see that the longer you keep me in this tiny flat while my brothers have their own houses, the more likely it is that one day I will want to leave for good!!"

But sometimes, it was pointless trying to reason with Mother.............................

Carwyn's Tool Box

How does Carwyn Jones sell the referendum?

“Well, I could talk about the constitutional situation in Wales, but can I explain it in this way? You hire three workers. With two of them, you give them a full set of tools. Call them Scotland and Northern Ireland. The other worker, you give that person an empty box and you say, ‘Each time you need a new tool, come to me, explain why you want that tool and then I’ll decide whether I’ll give you that tool.’ That’s Wales. What we want is a full set of tools in the same way as Scotland and Northern Ireland, so we can do the job properly.”

Da Iawn Carwyn!!!

Five Reasons to Vote YES

The starting gun has now been fired, but the campaign proper will not begin until after the General Election in May. But that does not mean we should sit back and let True-Monmouthshire dominate the headlines with their lies and distortions.

So to get things started, I suggest promoting some simple positive messages - these are my suggestions - give me yours:

Locality
Wales is not part of England, and we have different priorities, structures and traditions. The Westminster ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach has proven disastrous for the Welsh economy over the last 50 years, and we need to be able to develop local solutions to our particular circumstances.
Government of Wales - For the people of Wales - By the people of Wales

Equality
Scotland and Northern Ireland have had law making parliaments for over 10 years, while Wales has been grudgingly granted only limited powers. Even following a Yes vote we would still not have the same powers as Edinburgh or Belfast, but at least it would close the gap.
Ensuring a Union of Equals

Efficiency
The Assembly already has limited law-making powers but in order to get them it has to follow an extremely tortuous, expensive and time-consuming procedure (the infamous LCO process). A Yes vote would eliminate this cotly process and give the Assembly the ability to act quickly and decisively.

Better Government

Less Politicians
The number of AMs will remain unchanged when they receive their additional powers, so they will actually have to work that little bit harder for their money. But it does mean that the number of Welsh MPs can be reduced in line with their English & Scottish colleagues, probably from 40 to 32.
Less Government

More Jobs
The transfer of powers should also mean the transfer of some civil servants jobs from Whitehall to Cardiff, as well as the creation of some new positions in the media, and lobbying groups etc. Not exactly a replacement for our lost manufacturing base, but at least bringing some well paid jobs back into our economy.

Welsh Jobs

ITV Wales Poll

In yet another confirmation that a referndum on further powers would vote YES, there is another poll published, this time conducted by YouGov on behalf of ITV Wales.

The poll also asked voters' intentions in a referendum over increased law-making powers for the Assembly.Just under half (49%) would vote Yes, down 2% since November, and 32% No, up 2%. But 20% of voters didn't know or wouldn't vote.

There are still a lot of dont knows out there, but yet again there is a clear (but not overwhelming) majority in favour.

26th January 2010

Write this date in your diaries, as it is beginning to look like the date that the Senedd will fire the starting gun in the referendum campaign.

Update: It seems I was out by two weeks - date now set for Feb 9th - I can live with that.

There is an excellent analysis done by MH on the timescale for achieving the referendum which highlights most of the issues inviolved and some of the possible pitfalls.

What is critical for me is to let our politicians know (of all parties) that we will not tolerate any more prevarication, pontification, delaying tactics or outright obstruction on this issue. If Peter Hain feels the time is not right then we should mount a concerted all-party campaign to unseat him in Neath. If Cheryl Gillan wants to take more time to analyse what the Senedd will do with its powers, then maybe it is time to call for the abolition of the post of Welsh Secretary.
(In fact both of these objectives should be pursued in any case).

We can expect Untrue Wales to come out fighting with their usual lies and deceptions - but we should not give them any credibility by responding to their arguments, other than to simply rubbish them for what they are - Liars!

We must take the lead in the campaign, and promote positive and objective arguments in favour of the increased powers, such as:

Government of the people of Wales -

by the people of Wales -

for the people of Wales